Since Luis Suarez left the club a debate has swirled around about how to make up for his 31 league goals. Well, it´s not necessary. The fact is Liverpool could have collected 84 points last season even if they had scored 37 goals less, not 101, but 64.
The Reds played som magnificent, attacking football last season, scored 101 goals and amassed 84 points. The main reason for this was Luis Suarez´s contribution with 31 goals.
But statisically we could have been without 37 goals and still got the 84 points. Not Luis Suarez´s goals specifically but on the whole.
This is possible beacuse Liverpool won a lot of games with more than one goal. In fact 16 of them. Five games was won by a two-goal margin, another five with three goals, in an additional five matches Reds managed four-goal wins and one game ended in a five goal victory. If these 16 wins had been by a single goal then the points outcome would have been the same. So therefore it is possible to take away 34 goals in these 16 matches without losing any points. In three defeats Liverpool scored one goal and these goals could also have been taken away without changing the points tally. So a total of 37 goals was ”unnecessary” to score.
This little mathematical calculation is of course purely therotical. But it shows that the 31 goals from Suarez needn´t to be replaced in order to grab the same amount of points this time around. The difficult part is to win the described 16 games with the odd goal along with the ten games that Liverpool actually won by a single goal. A lot can go wrong if you cling on to a such slender leads in 26 matches. And it will.
But i firmly believe that Liverpool ”only” need about 80 goals, and of course let in less than the 50 we did last season, to muster another title challenge.
Even if I think it will be difficult, there is only one thing to do and say:
We Go Again.