The recent improvement in form has raised new hope of a top four finish for Liverpool. But even if we keep it up it will be a tough call to reach a Champions League qualification place. Historical figures tells us so.
I have checked how good our form are at the moment compared to how good it has to be to get us to top four. First out is our form in the last nine games. In those games Liverpool won five, drew three and lost one and collected 18 points. On paper a decent form but it will not take the Reds to top four.
An 18 points accumulation in nine games averages two points per match. If Liverpool continue in the same way the season through then the total sum will be 66 points. This tally hasn´t been enough for top four since the 2004/05 season. So in the last nine seasons the team in fourth place has collected more than 66 points, and in five of these campaigns the team in fourth amassed 70 points or more. So 66 is more than likely not enough.
To reach 70 points, and to even have a chance, Liverpool must average 2,24 points in the last 17 fixtures. That means ten points in every four match sequence or if you break it down: three wins, one draw and no defeats. A tall order indeed.
But perhaps it´s not an impossible task. Because in the last four matches that is exactly what Liverpool has managed. In those games we downed Burnley, Swansea and Sunderland and shared the spoils versus Leicester. But as you can see, it wasn´t achieved against the toughest of opponents. To do it in the future wont´be as easy. For instance, in an upcoming four match sequence we face Everton away, Tottenham home, Southampton away and Manchester City home. To pick up ten points in those encounters is a mammoth proposition.
But then again, if Liverpool can copy last season´s spring form then we can beat anybody and in the process reach 70 points, and beyond. In the final 17 fixtures last season the Reds collected 42 points, an average of 2,47 points per game. A similar haul this time will give us a total of 74 points and in all likelihood a top four place. Just on three occasions in the previous 22 Premier League seasons has 74 points not been enough for CL qualification.
The enormous question now if the Liverpool of today is good enough to do it. I have my doubts but delighted if proven wrong as:
We Go Again.